Dwayne Johnson’s ‘Red One’ Aims for $30M-35M Box Office Debut Amid Mixed Buzz

Dwayne Johnson’s latest film, Red One, is making waves in the holiday movie scene—but will it live up to box office expectations? The Christmas action-comedy, where Johnson stars as Santa’s head of security, is hoping for a strong opening weekend in theaters, with projections of $30 million to $35 million from 4,032 screens. Independent tracking reports are divided, with some estimates as low as $25 million and others as high as $40 million.

While a debut in the $30 million range would be solid for an original holiday movie, Red One has a hefty price tag—$250 million, not including global marketing costs. With such a significant investment, Amazon MGM will need more than just decent opening numbers to justify the film’s production budget. It’s clear that the studio is hoping for positive word-of-mouth to sustain the film’s run in theaters and boost its long-term prospects.

However, Amazon MGM is taking a broader view of the film’s success. For the streaming giant, Red One isn’t just about box office sales—it’s a key part of their strategy to attract top-tier talent and generate buzz for Amazon’s streaming platform, Prime Video. While theaters provide a valuable promotional tool, the lack of standardized viewership data makes it difficult to assess whether these high-budget projects are truly paying off in financial terms. That said, Red One was originally created for Prime Video, and the theatrical release is considered more of a bonus.

Internationally, Red One launched with a modest $26.6 million from 25,195 screens in 75 markets. Amazon MGM partnered with Warner Bros. for international distribution, which should help the movie reach a wider audience. Directed by Jake Kasdan (Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle), the film follows a North Pole bodyguard (Johnson) and a bounty hunter (Chris Evans) as they embark on a rescue mission to save Saint Nick (J.K. Simmons), who’s been kidnapped.

Critics, however, have not been kind to Red One. The film currently holds a dismal 30% score on Rotten Tomatoes, with Variety’s chief critic, Owen Gleiberman, calling the movie “charmless” and devoid of any real Christmas spirit. Despite the negative reviews, the movie will still likely top the box office this weekend, as the only new release in theaters. It will likely overshadow Venom: The Last Dance, which took the top spot last weekend with $15.9 million. The Sony sequel has earned $114 million domestically and $393 million globally.

While Red One has its challenges, it’s entering a slightly softer box office environment. Overall, the box office is down about 11% from last year and nearly 27% compared to 2019, according to Comscore. But there’s hope that things will pick up as the holiday season approaches, with upcoming blockbusters like Wicked, Gladiator II, and Moana 2 set to hit theaters soon.

For movie theater owners, these upcoming releases could offer much-needed relief. In the meantime, Red One will be hoping to capitalize on its star power and the holiday spirit to turn its box office expectations into a reality.