Rising Support for South Korean Nuclear Weapons Amid Global Tensions

Public support for South Korea to develop its own nuclear arsenal is growing, driven by concerns over deepening defense cooperation between North Korea and Russia and the potential re-election of Donald Trump. A recent survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification (KINU) found that 66% of respondents supported an independent nuclear deterrent, up 6 percentage points from last year.

For the first time, more respondents preferred South Korea having its own nuclear weapons over relying on US troops. Sangsin Lee, a KINU research fellow, noted that although no government or main party has adopted this as policy, calls for discussion are growing louder.

The sophistication of North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs and its relationship with Moscow have shaken confidence in US security guarantees. The Institute for National Security Strategy has called for a government-level review and public debate on nuclear armament in response to a new defense treaty between North Korea and Russia.

Prime Minister Han Duck-soo has stated that South Korea is not currently considering adopting nuclear weapons. However, Seoul’s conservative mayor, Oh Se-hoon, has called for immediate acquisition, citing significant security limitations in relying solely on the US nuclear umbrella.

The US opposes South Korea developing its own nuclear arsenal, fearing a regional arms race and threats to global non-proliferation efforts. Despite this, the advanced capabilities of North Korea and the possibility of a pre-emptive strike by Pyongyang have led some South Korean lawmakers to reevaluate the weapons policy.

US President Joe Biden’s administration has promised closer consultation on nuclear issues and regularly deploys nuclear-capable military assets to the Korean peninsula. Despite these assurances, the new strategic partnership between Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin has revived fears about the adequacy of US deterrence.

KINU’s survey found a correlation between fears of a second Trump presidency and support for a South Korean nuclear arsenal. Trump’s questioning of the value of a US military presence on the Korean peninsula during his presidency has left a lasting impact on South Korean public opinion.