The Myth of Migrant Crime: Data Dispels Republican Claims

Throughout the Republican National Convention, several speakers, including President Donald Trump and Texas Governor Greg Abbott, have claimed a surge in "migrant crime." Abbott alleged that President Biden has allowed rapists, murderers, and terrorists into the country, resulting in deadly consequences for Americans. However, data does not support these assertions.

Contrary to the claims, U.S. crime rates and immigration trends have moved in opposite directions. When illegal immigration plummeted in 2020, the murder rate increased. Conversely, as illegal immigration surged in 2021 and 2022, the murder rate stabilized and then declined. Over decades, the number of foreign-born Americans has risen while the murder rate has fluctuated independently.

Yes, some migrants have committed violent crimes. With over 45 million immigrants in the U.S., it's inevitable that some will commit crimes, just like any other demographic. But suggesting that immigrants are especially likely to be criminals is misleading. Studies consistently show that immigrants are less likely to commit crimes compared to native-born Americans.

In fact, increased immigration does not correlate with higher crime rates. Cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver have seen an influx of immigrants alongside declining murder rates. Border counties in Texas have lower violent crime rates than the state and national averages. The anecdotal instances highlighted by Trump and his allies do not reflect a broader trend.

Recent studies reinforce that immigrants have lower incarceration rates than native-born Americans, a pattern that has persisted for over 150 years. Undocumented immigrants, in particular, have lower felony arrest rates than legal immigrants and native-born citizens. This can be attributed to their motives: many migrants come to the U.S. seeking better job opportunities and safety from violence in their home countries.

The myth of migrant crime can perpetuate harmful stereotypes and racism. Immigrants recently arriving in New York report facing hostility and being labeled as "violent" by local residents. These negative perceptions can lead to social division and discrimination.

While concerns about illegal immigration and border security are valid, conflating these issues with crime is misleading. The narrative of increased crime due to immigration is not supported by data and can fuel unnecessary fear and prejudice.