The Fed Has Given Up on a Big Worker Rebound Due to Retirees

By Justin Jones On Dec 27, 2022

The Fed Has Given Up on a Big Worker Rebound Due to Retirees; Alice Lieberman had hoped to continue her teaching career for a few more years until the pandemic struck. Still, she found it challenging to adapt to hybrid classrooms. The summer of 2021 was her last before retirement.

At roughly the same time, her husband, Howard Lieberman, began closing down his consulting firm. Mr. Lieberman desired to be unemployed so that he and Mrs. Lieberman could go on camping trips and conduct volunteer work together.

Both Lieberman’s are now in their late sixties, representing a growing demographic that is subtly altering the face of the American workforce. Several generations of baby boomers have reached retirement age in recent years. Although many baby boomers put off retirement in the decade following the Great Recession to earn a few extra dollars and shore up their shaky finances, many of them are now exiting the workforce altogether.

This has far-reaching effects on the economy as it contributes to a labor shortage, which officials fear will lead to high wages and inflation. The Federal Reserve may be compelled to hike interest rates more than it would like to, increasing the likelihood of a recession.

Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell stated in a speech last month that relative to what may have been predicted based on trends before 2020, the labor force is short around 3.5 million individuals. Part of the decrease can be attributed to pandemic mortality and reduced immigration, but about two million workers have just retired.

Additionally, central bank officials and economists are becoming less optimistic that pensioners will ever return to the workforce.

Wendy Edelberg, director of the Hamilton Project at the Brookings Institution, remarked, “My optimism has faded.” People’s daily routines have shifted because they no longer need to work.

In the first months of the coronavirus pandemic, millions of Americans abandoned the workforce or had their employment taken away as companies laid off workers, schools closed, and people stayed home. Some people have remained on the sidelines because of the pandemic’s aftereffects, such as difficulties finding childcare or dealing with disabilities brought on by the Covid virus. As soon as immunizations were made available and businesses reopened, most workers returned promptly.

Employees above the age of 65 stood out. The percentage of adults aged 18-64 in the United States who are either employed or actively seeking employment has recovered to levels last seen in early 2020. The participation rate of persons aged 65 and up is significantly lower than before the epidemic. This reduction is comparable to losing around 900,000. That has contributed to a general decrease in involvement since 2020.

With fewer people looking for jobs, “the landing pad that the Fed has to lower the economy into is lower,” Ms. Edelberg said. “Growth needs to be tempered further because of developments in the labor force.”

To confidently declare that a surge of employees is no longer present is a lesson the Fed learned the hard way. As time passed following the Great Recession of 2008, authorities realized that the economy would soon face a shortage of new workers.

They made a mistake. The massive baby boomer generation, comprised of those born between 1946 and 1964, provided an unexpected source of labor by staying in the workforce longer than preceding generations. Their significance cannot be understated: Between the bottom of the recession and the beginning of the pandemic, 9.9 million Americans entered the workforce. Nearly 98%, or 9.7 million more people, came from employees aged 55 and up.

Nevertheless, there are some grounds to doubt that retirees will be a surprising gasoline source for the employment market this time. When the economy began to recover from the Great Depression, baby boomers were in their 50s and 60s. Some had yet to plan to retire, while others were getting ready to do so when the Great Recession of 2008 came and wiped out their funds.

Because they were still relatively young and often needed money, many decided to put off retirement as the job market improved in the 2010s.

According to Fed data, it took until late 2010 for persons aged 55 to 69 to regain their wealth at the end of 2007. This time, a hit in early 2020 was recovered by June. Despite the recent market slump, the wealth of people in that age range is around 20% higher than before the outbreak.

While inflation eats away at purchasing power, the fact that Social Security benefits are adjusted for inflation helps ease the blow.

For example, Liebermans in Pennsylvania can return to work part-time if they choose.

Mr. Lieberman expressed confidence that the country would be fine until inflation got “ballistic.

Retirements are one factor that could keep the labor force in the United States at a low level, but other causes could increase the labor force. Increases in immigration are just one example.

Additionally, some numbers show some cause for optimism in the labor market: Companies have continued to rapidly add employment despite their complaints about a worker shortage, as demonstrated by monthly payroll estimates from the Labor Department, which are based on a survey independent from the demographic statistics.

According to Indeed Hiring Lab’s North American economic research director Nick Bunker: “Listening to Jerome Powell talk about labor supply, he appears resigned to the assumption that there’s nothing left.” More people are available to work and eager to do so.

However, central bankers must make educated predictions, and their best judgment is that a significant rise in the supply of workers will not occur.

According to comments made by Mr. Powell last month, “over the near term, a reduction of labor demand growth would be required to restore equilibrium to the labor market.”